Ladies and gentlemen, without further ado or excess exposition, or even astronomical amounts of alliteration, I hereby impart to you Skipper's State predictions for Saturday's 4A State championships in Wamego.
Boys Team
1st- Wamego. I can't pick against the home team here. They've played second fiddle, second bassoon, second accordion, what have you, for quite some time now. I think they're finally due to pull through on the home course to win Phlash Patton a State title.
2nd- Hugoton. Andale beat them on a tiebreak at Regionals, but I think they're made of tougher stuff than the Indians.
3rd- DeSoto. Angel Vasquez takes full advantage of the stud effect to overcome Baldwin.
4th- Baldwin. For the first time in my life, I can honestly say that Baldwin doesn't have the depth.
5th- Andale. I don't think they'll hold together as well on Wamego's hills. Top 5 is still very solid, and a huge improvement for a team that didn't even go to State last year.
6th- Tonganoxie. I don't have much to say about this team, except that it seems like they have had some very good teams in the distant past, so perhaps this is a return to glory?
7th- Ulysses. The team that beat the best team to NOT go to State.
8th- Hiawatha. Could spoil my carefully crafted predictions, it all comes down to what Cale Heineger shows up Saturday- stud effect or pack runner?
9th- Labette County. I could see them as high as 7th, thanks to their guns at the top, but I think 9th or 10th is more appropriate.
10th- Chanute. Better pack than Labette, but not quite the same guns up top.
11th- McPherson. I still think they would be the worst team to make State if not for...
12th- Paola. I never expected Paola to field such a poor team, but since they got the Southeast Regional, they still snuck in.
Girls Team
1st- Baldwin. Where the boys lack depth, the girls seem to have it. Sienna Durr has been everywhere from 2nd or 3rd to 7th on this team, and not because of her own fluctuations in performance. Regardless of whether the rest of the team passes her up or not, they're still handy favorites.
2nd- DeSoto. This is about as traditional of a top 2 as this state knows.
3rd- Maize South. This might be an ambitious ranking for the Mavericks. I think they'll run into some trouble from their 3rd runner all the way down to the 6th runner.
4th- Concordia. Two things pain me about placing the Panthers at 4th. One of which is that they're behind Maize South, the other is that the streak continues, they beat the Red Raiders.
5th- Wamego. Red Raiders finish out of the Top 5? Unheard of. Stud effect be damned, I rank them ahead of Rose Hill and Pratt.
6th- Rose Hill. Courtesy of Emily Terrell and the stud effect, plus a fair pack effort.
7th- Pratt. Courtesy of Cheyenne Becker and the stud effect.
8th- St. James. The team that beat the best team to NOT make State is actually pretty fair themselves. They've got a solid 1-2 punch up top, but their pack is far less potent than Rose Hill or Pratt.
9th- Buhler. Not much to say about this team, just that they pack up pretty well.
10th- Chanute. Runner up at Regionals, I say they beat Southeast Regional Champs...
11th- Paola. My magical formula places them behind Chanute at the big dance.
12th- Pittsburg. Pack up, but they'll be waaaay back. Funny how all three teams from the Southeast Regional finish in the 3 last places...
Boys Individual
1. Angel Vasquez DeSoto This fellow is a machine. He's strong and dedicated, far more mature than when I first met him. He wins by at least 20 seconds.
2. Jacob Wallace Andale Man on a mission, only a sophomore.
3. Ethan Hartzell Baldwin Also only a sophomore. Baldwin tends to perform well on the big stage, so I say third for the man who, last I saw of him, was rocking a mullet.
4. Jacob Martin or Patrick Weaver Hugoton Whichever of these two are number one for the Eagles will be 4thish. Ordinarily I'd say Patty, but Martin really seemed to come into his own at Regionals. Very impressive.
5. Patrick Rachford Tonganoxie This guy has quietly been having a solid season.
6. Tosh Mihesuah Baldwin Senior goes out with a Top 10.
7. Hudson Phillip Wamego Unique senior, to say the least, leads his team with a Top 10 finish.
8. Joey Kenneson Rose Hill This kid has worked his butt off and consistantly improved throughout high school.
9. Caleb Porter McPherson Not his brother, but he's not too shabby himself.
10. Jacob Koester Concordia He hasn't put up the times that the duo from Labette County have, but he seems to always race Wamego's Phillip pretty tough. I think he continues doing so at State.
Girls Individual
1. Cheyenne Becker Pratt Isn't she like 25 by now? It seems like milennia since she took second behind Valley Center's Morgan Wedekind at State in 2009, shocking favorite Molly Milbourn of El Dorado, who settled for 3rd. Anyway, her 14:41 at Regionals makes her the favorite.
2. Emilea Finley Colby She lost at Regionals, but this salty middle distance star has a nose for the big time competition. She'll go all out at State, you can count on that. She gives Becker a run for the money.
3. MiKala Heddin Hesston Froshky looks to beat Finley again, but I don't see it happening.
4. Emily Terrell Rose Hill She may be tiny, but she's tough.
5. Katie Jones Baldwin Leading the pack for the team champs.
6. Alexa van Lerberg St. James Continuing the budding tradition for the... dare I say it... future powerhouse?
7. Quinlynn Walcott Basehor-Linwood Who? I'm not sure, but she impressed at Regionals, and she's got a Welsh surname. Not to mention, she beat other members of my Top 10, so it's only fair she makes it in too.
8. Rebekah Burgweger DeSoto Leading the Runners-Up
9. Carrie Finson Jefferson West The Northeast Regional was CRAWLING with stars, she was tenth in her region, but she's 9th at State, the way I see it.
10. Carol Whaley Baldwin Two in the Top 10 is a great indicator that Baldwin is the top team in 4A.
So, there you have it, my rankings. But that's enough XC for today. How about some Random Fun?
I have heard rumors in the scientific community that they have discovered a way to manipulate a virus in such a manner that it destroys cancer cells. I hope it works. But, can anyone remember the Will Smith movie that I absolutely loved as a sophomore in high school? You know, I Am Legend? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that it started out by saying that scientists had done the exact same thing... I remember my high school anatomy teacher making the remark some 3 years ago... "As soon as we see scientists claiming that they have a viral cure for cancer, that's when we need to begin preparing for the zombie appocalypse. " Well. If you need me, I'll be practicing my marksmanship.
This is the third consecutive night that I have been awoken by something odd at around 4:15 AM. The first night, it was a pack of dogs attacking a herd of horses. How dumb could they be? Have you noticed how horses don't like to be messed with? Fido lost, in case you were wondering. Two nights ago, I was awoken by my bedroom door popping open. On its own. Alrighty. Last night, I woke up to find my pillows laying at the foot of my bed. Well. What do you know. I must be a wild sleeper.
Speaking of sleep, that reminds me of a track related dream I had the other night. I was asked to pole vault by my coach. Why, I couldn't tell you. But I did it. And cleared 17 feet (obviously a dream). The problem is, I missed the mat. As I'm falling towards the track, I slip a naughty really, really loudly. The funny thing is, they're doing a live television interview of some chick right next to the pole vault pit. So I'm all over the news shouting obscenities and falling 17 feet to the earth. Figures.
Oh, and a little thing I'm trying. I call it Lemonade Culture. I don't drink pop, so I can't really call it pop culture. It's where I'll make some comment on celebs or that sort of thing. Two things, real quick: Based on the new Paramore songs we've been hearing, I think the new album due out next year sometime shall be phenomenol. Also that Herman Cain add is one of the most ridiculous things I have ever seen.
Bible Verse of the Day: Philippians 4:6 Be anxious in nothing, but in all things, through prayer and supplication, with thanksgiving, make your requests known unto God.
God bless, maybe I'll see you at State XC in Wamego.
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
Monday, October 24, 2011
Getting Started
Ok! Ladies and gentlemen, it is time for what you have all been waiting for!
Or not. But I have always wanted to try this. It's a blog. From me. To you. About running. And random stuff that happens on a daily basis. Even if you don't like running that much, I promise, you will find some of my posts very much entertaining. Because I can.
For starters... some Kansas High School Cross Country, specifically 4A, but a little bit of random observation thrown in there.
4A Boys
El Dorado: Andale takes the cake... on a tie breaker over Hugoton. I was very impressed by Andale getting their top 3 under 17:00... I didn't see that coming. I figured on Jacob Wallace winning (just a sophomore boys and girls), but I didn't expect him to run 16:07. Kudos. I think the big surprise of the day was Mulvane failing to qualify despite putting 3 runners in the top 15. I don't know how Ulysses snuck in there to steal that number 3 team spot, but somehow, they pulled it off.
Concordia: No big surprise that Wamego takes gold. The course at Concordia is very tough from what I've seen of results over the past few years, so I pay no heed to the times. I still rank Wamego as the favorite at State. Hiawatha I think is a hit or miss team. I'm not overly surprised that they qualified for State, but slightly surprised that they were Regional Runners-up. McPherson surprised me by qualifying, honestly, as I expected Concordia to take advantage of their home course and get themselves in. Apparently not, as they fall to 5th. Hesston was another team I expected to be in the mix, and in fact they were, finishing 4th.
WyCo: I called this one as far as teams go, but DeSoto won over Baldwin. I don't see either team performing as well at state as they traditionally do, but I think that you'd have to be goofy to not pick Angel Vasquez as the 4A favorite after he goes 15:42 (still a junior). Tonganoxie also looked very good to me, and I was surprised that they weren't ahead of Basehor-Lindwood, the 4th place team, by more than they were.
Ottawa: I expected Chanute to take the W. No surprise there. I expected a runner-up finish from Labette County behind that 1-2 punch of Drew Baum and David Geren. Now what I didn't expect was for Paola to be Iola. I guess that's why they run the meet instead of looking at some college kid's predictions.
Best Team to NOT Qualify: Mulvane. Obviously. I know they aren't the team of old, but shoot. I think they'd still be pretty competitive at State. We'll never know.
Overall Thoughts: Depth. Dang. 10 boys under 17:00 at El Dorado, one runner under 16:00 at WyCo... Baldwin and DeSoto NOT automatic assumptions for top 3? What is going on here? Btw, at ElDo, the times that would have easily qualified when I was in high school were placing in the 30s. :O My guess is that Andale won't be as strong at State as their Regional finish would suggest, but the State preview isn't going up until I get a chance to research a little more.
4A Girls
El Dorado: Maize South with the W. No surprise. 1-3 are very strong, but their 4 and 5 really prevent them from being a serious State contender, in my opinion. The big talk of the day is Pratt's Cheyenne Becker going 14:41. DANG. Can you say State favorite? Rose Hill qualifies as runner-up behind Emily Terrell, but imo showed better depth than Maize South. Pratt mainly qualifies via the "Stud Effect" (where one runner drags the team score down by being up so high in the individual rankings). Andale isn't overly close in 4th, 12 pts behind. Even without Becker, the Greenbacks still get the nod.
Concordia: The home team's ladies are finally making themselves a presence, knocking off Wamego for the second consecutive week. Does this continue at State? Hmm, we shall see. Buhler swings into the third spot, not surprising. I expected more of a fight from Haven, though. The big surprise to me is Hesston froshky MiKala Heddin beating up on middle distance star Emilea Finley of Colby, a 20 second gap!
WyCo: Here was another Regional where I was a little surprised. Baldwin and DeSoto go 1-2, yada yada, no surprise there, but Topeka Hayden doesn't qualify? Facepalm. St. James gets the nod. To be fair to St. James, I am told they had an off performance at the Wamego Invitational in September, explaining the trouncing they took. So nothing else to report here, really.
Ottawa: I nailed these teams. Paola, Chanute, and Pittsburg work their way in, Girard and Independence both coming up just shy of the bronze. Nothing huge to report individually, but I will say that Paola was far better than I predicted.
Best Team to NOT Qualify: Topeka Hayden. Sorry to rub it in, ladies, but you laid an egg. I really felt like the Wildcats were Top 5 material at State. Wait... Wildcats? Mulvane is the Wildcats, too... maybe it's a Wildcat curse... Haven was fourth, also the Wildcats... hmm...
Overall Thoughts: Not too sure I really have any major ones to put forward on this lady's side... I think it is going to be more traditional with Baldwin and DeSoto close to the top, throw in Wamego, Concordia, and Maize South... plus the stud effect coupled with depth for Rose Hill... hard saying. I look forward to seeing results.
Other News: In 5A, I actually missed less teams than I did in 4A, which was quite a shocker to me. I don't have a lot to report on there, as my expertise lies more in the 4A realm. I was a little surprised at the Bishop Carroll Regional, where Winfield girls are the runner up. Kudos to 5th runner Courtney Griffiths. She'd struggled some at some past meets, making me worry if Winfield would even qualify in 5A, let alone take the Regional Runner-Up. The boys also qualified, thanks to Josh Hanna, Colby Kromminga, and the Stud Effect. Bishop Carroll girls won, Goddard Eisenhower third. I think we see 3 of the top 5 or 6 at State here. But I think BC has some serious competition for State in Lansing (two runners under 15:00, three more under 16:00) and Saint Thomas Aquinas (6 between 15:03 and 15:35).
Also, I must just say that Jacob Morgan of Washburn Rural is an uber stud, and that Jonah Heng of Shawnee Mission West will be his closest competition. Close is a relative term. I expect up to 5 runners under 16:00 at 6A State.
Kudos to Wichita North, who has really impressed me this season.
Also, this week's Sign of the Appocalypse is that Wichita South qualified for State...?
Random Thing for the Day: While doing some heritage research, I discovered that I am widely of a Welsh background. Huh. There's a heritage you don't hear people bragging about very often. I'll take it. Cause I'm unique.
Bible verse of the Day: Matthew 6:33 Seek first His kingdom and His righteousness, and all these things will be given you as well.
Happy Monday, and God bless.
Or not. But I have always wanted to try this. It's a blog. From me. To you. About running. And random stuff that happens on a daily basis. Even if you don't like running that much, I promise, you will find some of my posts very much entertaining. Because I can.
For starters... some Kansas High School Cross Country, specifically 4A, but a little bit of random observation thrown in there.
4A Boys
El Dorado: Andale takes the cake... on a tie breaker over Hugoton. I was very impressed by Andale getting their top 3 under 17:00... I didn't see that coming. I figured on Jacob Wallace winning (just a sophomore boys and girls), but I didn't expect him to run 16:07. Kudos. I think the big surprise of the day was Mulvane failing to qualify despite putting 3 runners in the top 15. I don't know how Ulysses snuck in there to steal that number 3 team spot, but somehow, they pulled it off.
Concordia: No big surprise that Wamego takes gold. The course at Concordia is very tough from what I've seen of results over the past few years, so I pay no heed to the times. I still rank Wamego as the favorite at State. Hiawatha I think is a hit or miss team. I'm not overly surprised that they qualified for State, but slightly surprised that they were Regional Runners-up. McPherson surprised me by qualifying, honestly, as I expected Concordia to take advantage of their home course and get themselves in. Apparently not, as they fall to 5th. Hesston was another team I expected to be in the mix, and in fact they were, finishing 4th.
WyCo: I called this one as far as teams go, but DeSoto won over Baldwin. I don't see either team performing as well at state as they traditionally do, but I think that you'd have to be goofy to not pick Angel Vasquez as the 4A favorite after he goes 15:42 (still a junior). Tonganoxie also looked very good to me, and I was surprised that they weren't ahead of Basehor-Lindwood, the 4th place team, by more than they were.
Ottawa: I expected Chanute to take the W. No surprise there. I expected a runner-up finish from Labette County behind that 1-2 punch of Drew Baum and David Geren. Now what I didn't expect was for Paola to be Iola. I guess that's why they run the meet instead of looking at some college kid's predictions.
Best Team to NOT Qualify: Mulvane. Obviously. I know they aren't the team of old, but shoot. I think they'd still be pretty competitive at State. We'll never know.
Overall Thoughts: Depth. Dang. 10 boys under 17:00 at El Dorado, one runner under 16:00 at WyCo... Baldwin and DeSoto NOT automatic assumptions for top 3? What is going on here? Btw, at ElDo, the times that would have easily qualified when I was in high school were placing in the 30s. :O My guess is that Andale won't be as strong at State as their Regional finish would suggest, but the State preview isn't going up until I get a chance to research a little more.
4A Girls
El Dorado: Maize South with the W. No surprise. 1-3 are very strong, but their 4 and 5 really prevent them from being a serious State contender, in my opinion. The big talk of the day is Pratt's Cheyenne Becker going 14:41. DANG. Can you say State favorite? Rose Hill qualifies as runner-up behind Emily Terrell, but imo showed better depth than Maize South. Pratt mainly qualifies via the "Stud Effect" (where one runner drags the team score down by being up so high in the individual rankings). Andale isn't overly close in 4th, 12 pts behind. Even without Becker, the Greenbacks still get the nod.
Concordia: The home team's ladies are finally making themselves a presence, knocking off Wamego for the second consecutive week. Does this continue at State? Hmm, we shall see. Buhler swings into the third spot, not surprising. I expected more of a fight from Haven, though. The big surprise to me is Hesston froshky MiKala Heddin beating up on middle distance star Emilea Finley of Colby, a 20 second gap!
WyCo: Here was another Regional where I was a little surprised. Baldwin and DeSoto go 1-2, yada yada, no surprise there, but Topeka Hayden doesn't qualify? Facepalm. St. James gets the nod. To be fair to St. James, I am told they had an off performance at the Wamego Invitational in September, explaining the trouncing they took. So nothing else to report here, really.
Ottawa: I nailed these teams. Paola, Chanute, and Pittsburg work their way in, Girard and Independence both coming up just shy of the bronze. Nothing huge to report individually, but I will say that Paola was far better than I predicted.
Best Team to NOT Qualify: Topeka Hayden. Sorry to rub it in, ladies, but you laid an egg. I really felt like the Wildcats were Top 5 material at State. Wait... Wildcats? Mulvane is the Wildcats, too... maybe it's a Wildcat curse... Haven was fourth, also the Wildcats... hmm...
Overall Thoughts: Not too sure I really have any major ones to put forward on this lady's side... I think it is going to be more traditional with Baldwin and DeSoto close to the top, throw in Wamego, Concordia, and Maize South... plus the stud effect coupled with depth for Rose Hill... hard saying. I look forward to seeing results.
Other News: In 5A, I actually missed less teams than I did in 4A, which was quite a shocker to me. I don't have a lot to report on there, as my expertise lies more in the 4A realm. I was a little surprised at the Bishop Carroll Regional, where Winfield girls are the runner up. Kudos to 5th runner Courtney Griffiths. She'd struggled some at some past meets, making me worry if Winfield would even qualify in 5A, let alone take the Regional Runner-Up. The boys also qualified, thanks to Josh Hanna, Colby Kromminga, and the Stud Effect. Bishop Carroll girls won, Goddard Eisenhower third. I think we see 3 of the top 5 or 6 at State here. But I think BC has some serious competition for State in Lansing (two runners under 15:00, three more under 16:00) and Saint Thomas Aquinas (6 between 15:03 and 15:35).
Also, I must just say that Jacob Morgan of Washburn Rural is an uber stud, and that Jonah Heng of Shawnee Mission West will be his closest competition. Close is a relative term. I expect up to 5 runners under 16:00 at 6A State.
Kudos to Wichita North, who has really impressed me this season.
Also, this week's Sign of the Appocalypse is that Wichita South qualified for State...?
Random Thing for the Day: While doing some heritage research, I discovered that I am widely of a Welsh background. Huh. There's a heritage you don't hear people bragging about very often. I'll take it. Cause I'm unique.
Bible verse of the Day: Matthew 6:33 Seek first His kingdom and His righteousness, and all these things will be given you as well.
Happy Monday, and God bless.
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